Fast Facts from California Association of Realtors

Statistics for California Real Estate
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/outlook/20170524_housing_off_to_good_start.html

Calif. median home price for June:  $555,150.
Calif. highest median home price by region/county:
           San Francisco  $1,469,000.
Calif. lowest media home price by region/county:  
          Del Norte  $165,000.
Calif. traditional housing affordability index:  First Quarter 2017: 32% 

Calif. pending home sales index (PHSI):  Statewide, California pending homes sales decreased in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, with Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) declining 0.9% from 119.0 in June 2016 to 117.9 in June 2017. (based on signed contracts)   Source: California Association of Realtors

Mortgage rates week ending July 20, 2017 (Source: Freddie Mac)

30 year fixed:  3.96%   fees/points: 0.6%
15 year fixed:  3.23%   fees/points: 0.5%

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May 2016 Report (SCV) 

Santa Clarita Valley May Home Sales Rise 26% Even as Prices Hit Highest Point in Nine Years

Even with home prices at the highest level in nine years, sales of single-family homes during May throughout the Santa Clarita Valley increased 26.0 percent, the Southland Regional Association of Realtors reported on Wednesday, June 22, 2016.

The 252 single-family homes that changed owners last month also were 18.9 percent higher than this April’s tally. That was just three sales shy of the high point since the recession of 255 closed escrows reported in June 2015, a number not surpassed since October 2005.

“Real estate is strong here in Santa Clarita,” said M. Dean Vincent, president of the Santa Clarita Valley Division of the Southland Regional Association of Realtors. “There are 10 or 15 people coming through the door of every listing eager and ready to buy. If you’re an owner whose property is not selling, something is wrong or the list price is too high.”

Vincent said Santa Clarita is a regionwide draw because “the quality of life here cannot be touched elsewhere for the same price.”

The median price of homes sold last month was $550,000, up 3.8 percent over a year ago and 2.2 percent ahead of this April. The May median price was the highest since October 2007, though still short of the $643,000 record high median price posted in April 2006.

Similarly, the condominium median price of $349,500 was up 11.0 percent over a year ago and less than 1 percent higher than this May. However, it was the highest condo median price since September 2007. The record high of $397,000 came in January 2006.

“Santa Clarita is one of the pockets throughout California that outperform surrounding regions,” said Jim Link, the Association’s chief executive officer. “The schools are a draw and buyers get more house and property for their money.”

Open escrows — a measure of future resale activity — were up 7.8 percent over a year ago to a total of 402 pending transactions.

Like many other regions, however, Santa Clarita also has a limited inventory of homes listed for sale. There were 506 homes and condominiums available on the Association-operated Multiple Listing Service at the end of May. That was down 20.1 percent from a year ago.

At the current pace of sales, those 506 listings represent a 1.4-month supply, down from a 2.0-month inventory of May 2015. In earlier markets a supply of 6 months was considered normal, yet with people staying in homes longer, local buyers would rejoice if they had access to a 3-month inventory.

Distressed sales, once a mainstay of the market and source of ready listings, continue to fall off the chart. Realtors assisted a total of 16 distressed sales last month — six foreclosure-related transactions for a 1.7 percent market share and 10 short sales or 2.8 percent of the total combined residential sales total. Standard sales, involving traditional buyers and sellers, accounted for 337 transactions or 95.5 percent of the market.

The Southland Regional Association of Realtors® is a local trade association with more than 9,500 members serving the San Fernando and Santa Clarita Valleys. SRAR is one of the largest local associations in the nation. 

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First Time Buyers, Single Women Gain Traction in Buyer & Seller Survey 2016 National Assoc of Realtors

http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2016/10/first-time-buyers-single-women-gain-traction-in-nar-s-2016-buyer-and-seller-survey

WASHINGTON (October 31, 2016) — The quickening pace of home sales over the past year included a small rebound from two key segments of buyers who have been missing in action in recent years: first-time buyers and single women.

This is according to the National Association of Realtors®' annual Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, which also found that for-sale-by-owner transactions remained at an all-time low of 8 percent for the second straight year. Nearly 90 percent of all respondents worked with a real estate agent to buy or sell a home.  

The 2016 edition of NAR's Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers continues the longest-running series of national housing data evaluating the demographics, preferences, motivations, plans and experiences of recent home buyers and sellers; the survey dates back to 1981. Results are representative of owner-occupants and do not include investors or vacation homes.

After slipping for three straight years, the share of sales to first-time home buyers 1 in the 2016 survey ticked up to 35 percent, which is the highest since 2013 (38 percent) and a revival from the near 30-year low of 32 percent in 2015. In the 35-year history of NAR's survey, the long-term average of first-time buyer transactions is 40 percent.       ..................................

The home search: buyers rely heavily on the internet and real estate agents; single-family homes are a top choice

This year's survey convincingly proved once again that the two most popular resources for home buyers remain the internet (95 percent) and real estate agents (92 percent). Despite a record-high 51 percent of buyers saying they found the home they purchased online, most buyers who used the internet still ended up purchasing their home through an agent (90 percent).

Not surprisingly, mobile devices and tablets are increasingly becoming a resource for home buyers. Their usage lifted to 72 percent in this year's survey, which is up from 61 percent a year ago and 45 percent in 2013. Furthermore, 58 percent of buyers indicated they found the home they purchased on a mobile app.

"Regardless of the plethora of online resources readily available at the click of a mouse or the swipe of a thumb, consumers serious about buying a home continue to seek the expertise and market insights that only a Realtor® can provide," said Salomone. "Given the numerous competitive markets with minimal supply, it's no surprise that both first-time and repeat buyers sought an agent for assistance finding the right home and negotiating the terms of the sale."  

Similar to recent years, the most common housing type continues to be a detached single-family home (83 percent for second straight year) and one in a suburban area (54 percent; 52 percent in 2015). Meanwhile, purchases of townhouses or row houses remained at 7 percent for the third straight year; only four percent of buyers purchased a condo.  

Overall, the typical home bought was built in 1991 and had three bedrooms and two bathrooms. The share of buyers who purchased new home was at an all-time survey low of 14 percent.

Selling a home: seller use of an agent remains at all-time high; wanting a bigger house primary reason for selling

For the second straight year, 89 percent of sellers sold their home with an agent. This in turn — also for the second year in a row — kept for-sale-by-owner sales to their lowest share (8 percent) since the survey's 1981 inception and below 10 percent since 2012. 

"Although the imbalance of supply in relation to demand in recent year's continues to put many sellers in the driver's seat, they're still looking for a Realtor® now more than ever to price their home competitively, market their home to the widest number of eyes possible and ultimately help close the deal within a given timeframe," added Salomone. 

The typical seller over the past year was 54 years old (unchanged since 2014), had a household income of $100,700 ($104,100 in 2015), and was in the home for 10 years before selling — a year longer than 2015 and matching the all-time high in 2014. Fewer sellers indicated they wanted to sell earlier but were stalled because their home had been worth less than their mortgage (12 percent versus 14 percent a year ago); the figure was 17 percent in 2014.

Sellers realized a median equity gain of $43,100 ($40,000 in 2015) — a 24 percent increase (23 percent last year) over the original purchase price. Homes sold after 21 years of ownership had the largest equity gain (124 percent or $127,600); underlining the volatility during the downturn, equity gains fell to 3 percent for owners who bought between eight and 10 years ago.

Back in the 2012 survey, it typically took respondents 11 weeks to sell their home. With tight inventory conditions gripping most markets once again over the past year, sellers were considerably more successful finding a buyer in a shorter amount of time, with homes typically on the market for only a month.

A tad more sellers traded up (44 percent) compared to last year (42 percent) and slightly more, at 32 percent, traded down (31 percent in 2015). Sellers moved a median distance of 20 miles — 72 percent stayed in the same state — and the most popular reason given for selling their home was it being too small (18 percent).

The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing over 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

The above article is abbreviated.  The full article is on this link:  http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2016/10/first-time-buyers-single-women-gain-traction-in-nar-s-2016-buyer-and-seller-survey

October New Home Purchase Mortgage Applications Increase 8% Year over Year

Washington, DC  November 15, 2016

Mortgage Bankers Association newsletter

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for October 2016 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 8 percent relative to October 2015. Compared to September 2016, applications decreased by 2 percent. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns.

"Mortgage applications for new homes are down 2.3 percent over the month but are up 8.3 percent compared to last year," said Lynn Fisher, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics. "Year to date, the market share of builder applications has grown for conventional loans from 67.1 percent last year to 67.9 percent in 2016 and VA loans which increased from 12.5 percent last year to 13.1 percent in 2016. The share of mortgage applications for new homes fell for FHA and RHS loans to 18.3 percent and 0.7 percent respectively."

By product type, conventional loans composed 67.7 percent of loan applications, FHA loans composed 18.4 percent, RHS/USDA loans composed 1.0 percent and VA loans composed 12.9 percent in October. The average loan size of new homes increased from $326,998 in September to $329,634 in October.

The MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 547,000 units in October 2016, based on data from the BAS. The new home sales estimate is derived using mortgage application information from the BAS, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for October is a decrease of 7.8 percent from the September pace of 593,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, the MBA estimates that there were 44,000 new home sales in October 2016, unchanged from September.

MBA's Builder Application Survey tracks application volume from mortgage subsidiaries of home builders across the country. Utilizing this data, as well as data from other sources, MBA is able to provide an early estimate of new home sales volumes at the national, state, and metro level. This data also provides information regarding the types of loans used by new home buyers. Official new home sales estimates are conducted by the Census Bureau on a monthly basis. In that data, new home sales are recorded at contract signing, which is typically coincident with the mortgage application. 

Third Quarter 2016 California Housing Affordability

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Traditional Housing Affordability Index

Third quarter 2016

C.A.R. Region Housing
Affordability Index
Median Home
Price
Monthly Payment Including Taxes & Insurance Minimum
Qualifying Income
CA SFH  31  $           515,940  $               2,510  $           100,290
CA Condo/Townhomes 40  $           418,230  $               2,030  $             81,290
Los Angeles Metropolitan Area 34  $           468,600  $               2,280  $             91,090
Inland Empire 46  $           318,960  $               1,550  $             62,000
S.F. Bay Area 25  $           785,980  $               3,820  $           152,780
US 57  $           240,900  $               1,170  $             46,830
S.F. Bay Area
Alameda 22  $           795,400  $               3,870  $           154,610
Contra-Costa 35  $           601,510  $               2,920  $           116,920
Marin 19  $       1,185,000  $               5,760  $           230,340
Napa 25  $           639,000  $               3,110  $           124,210
San Francisco 14  $       1,298,000  $               6,310  $           252,300
San Mateo 15  $       1,300,000  $               6,320  $           252,690
Santa Clara 22  $       1,000,000  $               4,860  $           194,380
Solano 45  $           393,000  $               1,910  $             76,390
Sonoma 27  $           580,500  $               2,820  $           112,840
Southern California
Los Angeles 26  $           536,720  $               2,610  $           104,330
Orange County 23  $           740,070  $               3,600  $           143,850
Riverside County 42  $           358,510  $               1,740  $             69,690
San Bernardino 55  $           248,280  $               1,210  $             48,260
San Diego 26  $           589,260  $               2,860  $           114,540
Ventura 30  $           642,740  $               3,120  $           124,930
Central Coast
Monterey 25  $           539,000  $               2,620  $           104,770
San Luis Obispo 25  $           574,930  $               2,790  $           111,750
Santa Barbara 20  $           717,460  $               3,490  $           139,460
Santa Cruz 18  $           793,000  $               3,850  $           154,140
Central Valley
Fresno 50  $           238,260  $               1,160  $             46,310
Kern (Bakersfield) 56  $           224,670  $               1,090  $             43,670
Kings County 57  $           210,140  $               1,020  $             40,850
Madera 47  $           238,160  $               1,160  $             46,290
Merced 50  $           219,950  $               1,070  $             42,750
Placer County 46  $           439,500  $               2,140  $             85,430
Sacramento 45  $           327,040  $               1,590  $             63,570
San Joaquin 44  $           321,250  $               1,560  $             62,440
Stanislaus 48  $           273,550  $               1,330  $             53,170
Tulare 49  $           212,570  $               1,030  $             41,320

r = revised

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Traditional Housing Affordability Index

Third quarter 2016

STATE/REGION/COUNTY Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2015
CA SFH  31 31                         29
CA Condo/Townhomes 40 40                         39
Los Angeles Metropolitan Area 34 33                         31
Inland Empire 46 46                         45
S.F. Bay Area 25 23                         23
US 57 57                         57
S.F. Bay Area
Alameda 22 20                         20
Contra-Costa 35 32                         34
Marin 19 18                         19
Napa 25 25                         23
San Francisco 14 13                         11
San Mateo 15 14                         13
Santa Clara 22 19                         19
Solano 45 45                         45
Sonoma 27 26                         26
Southern California
Los Angeles 26 30                         24
Orange County 23 22                         20
Riverside County 42 41                         39
San Bernardino 55 56                         54
San Diego 26 26                         24
Ventura 30 29                         25
Central Coast
Monterey 25 25                         27
San Luis Obispo 25 27                         27
Santa Barbara 20 20                         17
Santa Cruz 18 17                         19
Central Valley
Fresno 50 50                         49
Kern (Bakersfield) 56 54                         53
Kings County 57 56                         60
Madera 47 50                         49
Merced 50 52                         55
Placer County 46 46                         44
Sacramento 45 45                         47
San Joaquin 44 45                         36
Stanislaus 48 48                         40
Tulare 49 50                         53

r = revised



HOME PURCHASE SENTIMENT INDEX – COMPONENT HIGHLIGHTS
Fannie Mae’s December 2015 Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) rose 2.4 percentage points in December to 83.2. Overall, consumer sentiment about personal finances and the direction of the economy has improved since last month. Four of the six HPSI components increased in December: Household Income, Good Time to Sell, Job Security, and Home Prices. Mortgage Rate net expectations fell by 4 points, while the net share of respondents who said it is a Good Time to Buy remained at 35 percent. Overall, the HPSI is up 1.9 points since this time last year.

ABOUT FANNIE MAE’S HOME PURCHASE SENTIMENT INDEX

The Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) distills information about consumers’ home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers’ current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers’ evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier.

ABOUT FANNIE MAE’S NATIONAL HOUSING SURVEY

The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey polled 1,000 Americans via live telephone interview to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, home and rental price changes, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100 questions used to track attitudinal shifts, six of which are used to construct the HPSI (findings are compared with the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). As cell phones have become common and many households no longer have landline phones, the NHS contacts 60 percent of respondents via their cell phones (as of October 2014). To reflect the growing share of households with a cell phone but no landline, the National Housing Survey has increased its cell phone dialing rate to 60 percent as of October 2014. For more information, please see the Technical Notes. Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to stabilize the housing market in the near-term, and provide support in the future. The December 2015 National Housing Survey was conducted between December 1, 2015 and December 21, 2015. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. Interviews were conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, in coordination with Fannie Mae.

DETAILED HPSI & NHS FINDINGS

For detailed findings from the December 2015 Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Consumer Attitude Measures page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth topic analyses, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.

To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

U.S. Housing Market Recovery Inches Forward
Freddie Mac recently released its updated Multi-Indicator Market Index (MiMi) showing the U.S. housing market continuing to slowly stabilize.

The national MiMi value stands at 81.3, indicating a housing market that is on its outer range of stable housing activity, while showing an improvement of +0.67 percent from August to September and a three-month improvement of +1.85 percent. On a year-over-year basis, the national MiMi value has improved +5.79 percent. Since its all-time low in October 2010, the national MiMi has rebounded 37 percent, but remains significantly off from its high of 121.7. 

Rents Gallop Past Home Values in April
Soaring rents outpaced home values in April for the first time in years, further deepening a "rental crisis" and signaling that home values are growing at a more normal pace, according to April Zillow Real Estate Market Reports.
Home values in April ticked slightly upward from March, to a national Zillow Home Value Index of $178,400 ­– a 3-percent increase over last April. The Zillow Rent Index (ZRI) rose four percent year-over-year, to $1,364.
Home values have both risen and fallen over the past decade, but rents have been steadily rising. They are now higher than ever before, according to the report.
Rental growth has been outpacing home value growth for several months in some of the nation's hottest markets. In San Francisco, rents started rising faster than home values in